by RBR Admin
Editor’s note: Orrin Konheim took on this task last-minute and did a fun job! We will add the women’s predictions next year, it was merely a time constraint. On the women’s side, the team battle between NC State and BYU should be epic, and to have a real freshman, Jane Hedengren fighting for the individual title, for the first time in 40 years is exceptional. Enjoy Orrin’s predictions, and enjoy the races!
Orrin Konheim predicts 2025 NCAA Men’s cross country champs:
Before I unveil my NCAA predictions, I’ll go over some caveats. I could try to do this based on the highest ceiling of each athlete, but the results are always more random than that. Dylan Schubert, Dylan Throop, Dean Casey, Charlie Sprott came out of nowhere at the final race of the final cross-country season last year and pretty much the entire Oklahoma State squad fell off the face of the Earth that same day. And within that range of randomness, I will tend to predict what will make me happiest. I highly recommend this method when predicting any sport, Oscar pool, or whatever: This way, you’ll be doubly pleased if you win: You got it right, and the results went your way.
Considering that the two most accomplished recruits in the history of collegiate cross-country (Solomon Kipchoge originally bought over by Texas Tech; Nicholas Kipchirchir of Virginia Tech) didn’t last through the national meet, I’m going to bet that the East African newbies like Elsingi Kipruto of Louisville, Kelvin Cheriuyot of Florida, Elkana Kipruto of Wichita State, Ronald Ngetich and Evans Biwott of Oklahoma are more variable then the upperclassmen. No matter how well their season is going, a lot of freshmen underestimate the demands of a full NCAA season.
I also value talent of the team and base that on the PRs of the previous season. I was listening to the Stride Report’s preview (I don’t know if that’s considered cheating, but hopefully I’ll make up for it by out-predicting them) and in my opinion, this guys are overvaluing teams like Syracuse and Virginia because they’ve had good results in cross-country. The problem is these seasons are so short that these are limited sets of data points. But as everyone knows (I’d argue that’s why people like the sport), numbers don’t lie. If your runners have a strong collection of 3K, 5K, or 10K PRs (unless you’re having a breakout season which takes some discernment), that’s what indicates your potential.
Lastly, let’s discuss the elephant in the room: The main narrative around this season on the men’s side has revolved around the importing of Kenyan talent and their projected mass dominance this weekend is likely going to bigger than ever before. Last year, a number of Americans (and assorted foreign athletes) had unexpectedly strong showings to hold the Kenyan wave at bay, but this year, it’s far likelier that the dam is going to break. As such, there’s been a mix of legitimate and disturbingly nativist sentiments on the running message boards around this trend.
The way I see it, I don’t think it’s inherently disrespectful to the Kenyan faction to root for the American runners at these championships: After all, we do root for our own country at the Olympics. This is compounded by the fact that I’m a strange bird in that I don’t always root for the Americans at the Olympics, but I do root for an international diversity. I think it would be a disappointing championships if it was dominated by any one country, whether Americans, Kenyans, or Uruguayans (if Valentin Soca recruited a dozen of his friends to run for CBU next year, for example). Therefore, I will be rooting for a diversity this weekend.
Without further ado, here’s the list:
- Habton Samuel, New Mexico: The man who started this revolution by entering the NCAA with a 13:13 PR a little over two years ago hasn’t been unbeatable but he’s been close. Despite having the guts to go all-out, he rarely falls flat out of the leaders pack. There have been a couple guys who’ve had his number, but he has excellent fitness. At the end of the day, I want to see this happen, because I’ve met him and he’s a great guy, he takes winning seriously, and has paid his dues by being at the top of race transcripts for three years. Plus, as an Eritrean, I think he will split the pro-Kenyan and pro-American camps.
- Brian Massau, Oklahoma State:Realistically, Brian deserves it more than Dennis for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. He’s had a more consistent run for three years. Seeing Dennis on top of Brian seems wrong.
- Solomon Kipchoge, Washington State: It will be interesting seeing a school that hasn’t been there in the top 10, but this guy is a 59-minute half-marathoner and he’s starting to show that promise again. I’m not necessarily rooting for him, but seeing him outside the top three is unrealistic.
- Rocky Hansen, Wake Forest: If I’m not mistaken, this would be the first time Wake Forest breaks into the top 10 (at least, this century) individually, so it’s something to root for, and I, like most of the fan base, want to see the sport remain internationally competitive. I welcome the Kenyans and acknowledge their right to compete (though wouldn’t mind seeing restrictions on age), but it would be a sad day if they dominated the whole thing. This year’s a weak one for the Americans or for many other nationalities, but Rocky can do it.
- Dennis Kipingetich- Oklahoma State: I’m not expecting him to eclipse Massau even if he’s two solid meet wins this season. Brian Massau has been on a whole other level the entirety of last year and is still more than capable as evidenced by his Big 12 win.
- Evans Kirui, Washing State: He didn’t have insanely unfair times coming into the NCAA, so he has been someone to root for in that sense and he’s been pretty scrappy in racesz
- Bernard Churiyot, Tulane: It would be nice to see Tulane here as a team that’s never broken into top 10 individually. His coach touted him up as someone with huge potential, and it’s taken until his sophomore year to see him deliver on his potential. He is one of the few mega-talents to have not had a bad race this season and I want to see this happen, so it’s an easy slot to place him here.
- Taha El Rouy, Eastern Kentucky-The 3:54 miler is Moroccon, so score one more for international non-Kenyan finishers. I think this is largely doable because of his experience and his results last week in a competitive region.
- Valentin Soca, Cal Baptist: A South American in the top 10? Sounds slightly unlikely based on his last race results at the west regionals, but it’s quite possible that he’s peaking late since his summer ran up to the World Championships in Tokyo. His 5K time of 13:14 is among the best in the field and his 7:34 in the 3K is five times as impressive. If he’s going to have another breakout race, it’s here.
- Evans Biwott, Oklahoma: Oklahoma is my sleeper team. I believe Thobias Cheruiyot was an All-American or close to it a couple years ago and they now have three guys faster than him. It’s likely a crapshoot between him, Shadrack Kiptoo, or Ronald Ngetich and I’ll just pick the one with the name that’s easiest to spell (which ended up being a self-defeating exercise since I wrote the names of the other two here). I would love to put an American here, but realistically none of them have earned a likely top 10 berth.
- Eleji Kosgei, Louisville-Go Cardinals! Full disclosure, I once worked remotely for the University of Louisville on a research project and love their basketball team. As for their running, I still have the love and Ian Kibiwott easily had the best hair at the regional meet I saw last weekend (Colton Sands was a close second). In reality, he’s a wild card so he could go very high or very low.
- Riley Hough, Michigan State: Let’s just say this is my favorite runner in the field. I think he’ll give it his all, but I doubt he was tapering when his team was on the line last week and that’s a cause for concern.
- George Couttie, Virginia Tech-Last year, Couttie and Gary Martin had their coming out parties at this meet. This year, I think Coultie will have Martin’s number after methodically passing him down the straight last week.
- Gary Martin, UVA-I’ve seen people predict Virginia and Gary Martin high but if Gary Martin had the current fitness at 10K to finish high, he’d have shown it at some point this season. I also find his nerd chic look adorable and his times mind-boggling , but it’s only because a lot is on his shoulders with the team race and he’s a smart racer that I’m generously ranking him this high.
15-17. Sanele Masondo, Robin Kwemoi Bera, Josah Rutoh, Iowa State-I think they’ll run as a pack and while these guys are top 10 guys, some people are going to fall back. The results have shown that Rogers Kiplimo is not up to par with this trio, so he will get swallowed up.
- Benjamin Balazs, Oregon-I think Oregon’s got a good chance at a top 4 slot (better than Syracuse or Virginia, in fact; I think it’s between Colorado and Oregon, personally) which means they are gonna aim to put some people up front. Ben’s stock (sorry, I’m not even going to conjugate that last name to an apostrophe on such a deadline) is not as high following his abysmal 26th place finish last week, but he should get credit for winning the Bill Dillinger invite and being in the front pack in his races this season. As someone who saw the Dellinger, I can assure you those Oregon teammates were going for the win. Besides there’s a lot to like about this guy: A hometown recruit, a steeplechaser specialist (it helps all steeplechasers to see them do well against the flat-footers), and that stylish “Z” in his last name.
- Trayvon Kitchen, BYU-This is the most daring freshman since the era of Nico Young , Ky Robinson and Cole Sprout and the results have shown.
- Shadrak Kiptoo, Oklahoma-Unlike Roland and Evans, Kiptoo is not a rookie. He’s had some big runs last year when it counted.
- Dominic Serum, Colorado-Serum started his NCAA journey at Oklahoma: Another reason to root for him. While I’m thrilled to see the Colorado Buffaloes silence the haters with some great pack running this fall, I’m not convinced that Serum’s bad race at the Mountain Regional wasn’t tapering unfortunately.
He probably peaked too soon, but still has enough for an all-american finish.
- Evans Kiplagat, New Mexico-As he’s more of a mile-3K guy, I think he’s more of an x variable but he’s been pretty determined and consistent.
- Martin Chirchirir, New Mexico-He’s a clear top 3 guy for a squad that always places people up high.
- Abdel Laadjel, Oregon-A transfer from Providence that went from 112th at Nuttycombe to far higher heights as a Duck. If you’re rooting for Oregon to overcome it’s horrible finish a couple years ago, and for Jerry Schumacher and silence the online haters, how can you not root for his convert to his work in seeing this diamond in the rough and making him a Big 10 champion (a very masterful race). Also, many might be surprised by his name but he’s listed as Irish so that is an international win.
- Jesse Hamlin, Butler-He’s a veteran who got all-american once before. Butler is probably going to have an individual place up high somewhere so he’s my pick.
- Faoud Massoui, Oklahoma State-At a time, I thought Levan Kipkemboi was an unstoppable #3 for the squad but Falud has more experience, and probably has more desire to leave a mark on his senior year.
- Ethan Coleman, Notre Dame-Tragic year for Notre Dame so far, right? Is it me or was this a top four team on paper? At least, this guy has been kicking it.
- Justine Kipkoetch, Eastern Kentucky-This is the advantage of having attended the regional championship with a media pass. I know from Kipkoetch’s teammates that he’s recovering from injury. His 15th place finish was within 8 seconds from a top ten slot and I’ve been assured he will be better. Unfortunately, I can’t remember which race or races this was (my trusty digital assistant TFRRS can only do so much with my memory banks), but he’s been admirably attacking the lead whenever I’ve seen him this season.
- Colin Sahlman, Northern Arizona-Honestly, I thought it would be fun to have two schools with directions in their names next to each other and Southern Utah isn’t having a great year. It does seem unusual for Northern Arizona not to have someone in the top 40. I was briefly considering his teammate Cael Grotenhius, but I don’t think anyone realistically is up there with Colin right now.
- Davin Thompson, BYU– He’s been way too consistent to consider that much of a fall from grace. A lot of other BYU runners have gone pro and with the university having such a good pipeline, I have to believe he will be extra motivated for good positioning this weekend.
- Dismus Lokira, Alabama-Between Kelvin Cheriuyot, Nickson Chebii and the Alabama squad, who knows. But let’s inject a little Southern charm to this part of the field. I do feel like one of the big rookies is going to fall, so I’m going to predict Cheriuyot to fall way down.
- Assaf Harrari, Syracuse-I understand Syracuse has had great results but I also don’t think they’re backed up by great talent, unless everyone is breaking out and we’re going to see them dominate the coming year with great 5k and 10K times. Sam Lawler’s 10K time of 28:21 placed him 46th last year and that was their top runner in a distance event. He’s been performing slightly better than Harrari but in the name of randomness, I’ll make a switch.
- Colton Sands, UNC-Hey, the coaching hasn’t changed from the program that bought us Parker Wolfe and Ethan Strand last year, so I don’t see why new stars aren’t going to develop. He has one of the fastest 3K times in collegiate history (top 25 or so), which is possibly somewhat a fluke considering his other times. Or is it?
- Thomas Westphal, Michigan State-As nice as it would be to have two freshmen in the top 40, Westphal is actually a red shirt freshman. That fares even better for his chances and we know Michigan State is hungry.
- Collins Kipngock, Kentucky-OK, two confessions: Dating back to my earliest days picking March Madness brackets, I sought out patterns and I won two big paydays, so I have that weird superstition. Also, I felt like I snubbed him a little bit when I interviewed him at Panorama Farms last week. This is my apology. Collins is placing decently in big fields, but is just short of having had an incredible performance. He’s my most random pick, but let’s see.
- Nickson Chebii, Auburn-There are a lot of East Africans in the SEC so it might have escaped many that Chebii has had a pretty deadly consistency this season (on top of some pretty impressive results last season). He was only 4 seconds of the South Regional win, too.
- Simeon Birnbaum, Oregon-This spot could also go to Michael Meirelles (if you transfer in, I feel like the boost is significant) or Evan Bishop. My guess is Oregon’s going to have the largest spread of the podium contenders but they’ll have somestar showings.
- Toby Gillen, Mississippi-Give it up for the veteran who snagged All-American honors in the outdoor 5K in 2024 and placed one spot off the podium in the same event last spring. Gillen’s been Mississippi’s #2 behind Kidus Misgina but swicheroo’s aren’t uncommon in big fields.
- James Corrigan, BYU-This is an Olympian with extraordinary drive and abilities. He also had a long track season, so like Valentin Soca, there’s a possibility of him peaking late. Also, let’s give it up for the steeplechasers! They’re always treated like second-class runners by the fandom, so it’s always nice for them to show up their rivals when they meet on common ground.
- Ryan Schoppe, Oklahoma State-I’m predicting with such a competitive field that no one closes out a full five by the time the All-Americans pass through the line, but Schoppe will stop the bleeding if anyone on Oklahoma State has any off-days. As the only American in the top 6 (Oklahoma State isn’t really banking on a strong seventh guy, they’re only six deep), he’s been an extremely capable presence, and he’s done some great work on the collegiate scene for five years. I’m assuming Israeli runner Adisu Guadia will finish somewhere in the 40s.
As for the team race: 1. Oklahoma State 2. New Mexico 3. Iowa State 4. Colorado 5. Oregon 6. Virginia 7. Notre Dame 8. Oklahoma 9. Syracuse 10. Wake Forest
As for the women’s race, I unfortunately am slightly less knowledgeable and couldn’t get it done before the deadline. However, I do wish them the best of luck and will include them in my post-race write-up.
