by Larry EderThis is the preview by resident Kiwi, Roy Stevenson. The late James Dunaway, our editor emeritus and now editor from track valhalla (James was agnostic, so I do not want bolts of lightning sent down from on high), encouraged me to work with Roy, and it has been a fun journey.
Preview of the 2015 USA Track & Field Championships, Eugene, Oregon
By Roy Stevenson
The 2015 USA Track & Field Championships are set to be the usual potboiler of thrills, spills, and shock upsets. Athletes will pull up lame. Some will take tumbles. And some will have bad days that remind us just how quickly fortunes can change in this sport we love so much. Yet others will cross the line with supreme mastery of their races.
Obviously I can’t predict the upsets until they unfold, but I can make some educated guesses as to whom is likely to finish in the medals and make the US team for the world champs in Beijing.
Let’s start with the ‘sure thing’ athletes first. Some runners, jumpers, and throwers have so dominated their events over the past couple of years that nothing short of a fall in the water jump or pole vault pit are likely to dethrone them.
I’m obviously talking about Evan Jager in the Men’s 3,000m Steeplechase, Emma Coburn in the Women’s 3,000m Steeplechase, and Jenn Suhr in the Pole Vault. Jager (8:04.71–2014) is currently a level above his competitors, even footing it with the hordes of Kenyans that traditionally dominate this event.
Sure, the usual suspects Don Cabral (8:19.40–2012), Dan Huling (8:13.29–2010), and possibly Stanley Kebenei (8:35.27–2014), will be up with the play with two laps to go–maybe even leading for a while, but Jager’s mile speed will eventually prevail. And whether he wins by 10 seconds or 1 second will be up to him alone.
Women’s 3,000m Steeples favorite, Emma Coburn, has a world class PR of 9:11.42, set in 2014. Her next closest rival will be the much-improved Nicole Bush (9:24.59–2014), with Stephanie Garcia (9:24.28–2014) and Ashley Higginson (9:27.59–2014).
There’s a lot of daylight between Coburn and the rest of the field. Coburn’s tactics will determine how much she wins by, but she will cross the line first (short of a water jump or hurdle mishap).
Jenn Suhr, who has won the women’s pole vault for the past three years, and had nine wins in the past ten years, surely has ‘her’ event locked up (short of a nasty fall in the vaulting box). However, what will be fun to watch is the struggle for second and third places between Sandi Morris and Demi Payne.
These two have been at each other’s throats in some exciting tussles this past collegiate season. I had the good fortune to meet these two go-getters at a recent track writer’s breakfast and have no doubts that they will both soar to great heights, given another year or two of strengthening and diligent practice.
They are our country’s future pole vault trust. And, no, I’m not going to predict who will beat whom, because they have been taking turns slamming each other all season.
The Ruppster is odds on favorite for the men’s 10,000m, unless the Eugene pollen allergies hit him too hard. But even then, he still has his Darth Vader filter mask. When he discards the mask, with three laps to go, to drop in his customary 62-second laps to break up the lead pack, we’ll know the hunt is on. And with his outstanding finishing kick, he’s going to win.
The Women’s 10,000m is a slightly more open race. Molly Huddle, with a quick 5K personal record of 14:42.64 (2014) and outstanding 10K time of 30:47.59 (2014) has the best speed in the field. However, marathoner Shalane Flanagan, with a 5K best of 14:45.20 (2011) and a 10K best of 30:22.22 (2008), may have the strength to pull away from Huddle if she times her race right.
But Flanagan’s going to need a 30+-meter gap at the bell to ensure a win over Huddle. And watch for NCAA Champ Molly Seidel. She may not be strong enough yet to foot it with the top five, but her brilliant race in the NCAAs, where she sprinted to a huge lead with three laps left was an indicator of her fearlessness.
Several others will slug it out for third place, about a minute behind the dynamic duo.
The men’s 5,000m would also seem a dead cert for Galen Rupp (12:58.90–2012). Even if the 10K takes the sting out of Rupp’s legs, he still has three days to recover for Sunday’s final. And he’s done the 5K/10K double plenty of times before.
The question is, how close will Bernard Lagat (12:53.60–2011), Ben True (13:02.74–2014), Ryan Hill (13:14.22–2013), and Miler Garrett Heath (1500m 3:34.12–2013), be with 2 laps to go? And, can the evergreen Lagat still foot it with Rupp if they’re together over the final 200m? We predict Rupp, True, Lagat, and Hill.
The women’s 1500m will be a knockdown, drag-out contest. With names like Jenny Simpson (3:57.22–2014), Shannon Rowbury (3:59.49–2014), Morgan Uceny (4:00.06–2011), Treniere Moser (4:02.85–2013), and Alexa Efraimson (4:07.05–2014), it’s difficult to pick the first three. Our money is on Simpson, Rowbury, and Uceny.
If the men’s 1500m is run at an honest pace and the group is bunched, we’ll see some fireworks over the last lap. With Leo Manzano (3:30.98–2014), Matt Centrowitz (3:31.09–2014), Lopez Lomong (3:32.20–2010), and Ben Blankenship (3:33:37.03–2013), Andrew Wheating (3:30.90–2010), this is a classy field and anything can, and probably will, happen down the home straight. We’re predicting Centrowitz, Manzano, and Lomong in that order, but we’re hoping Andrew Wheating makes a return to top form and gets in among the medals.
Duane Solomon is slight favorite for the men’s 800m, with a 1:42.82–2012 time, over world champs silver medalist, Nick Symmonds (1:42.95–2012). Erik Sowinski (1:44.58–2014) will probably snag the bronze medal.
Will Claye has a strong chance at the gold in the men’s Triple Jump, and is our predicted champion.
Then there’s a whole set of events where the competitors are so close that only the worst Las Vegas gambling junkie would dare to predict the outcome. We predict close calls in the men’s 100m, which will be a toss up between Tyson Gay, Mike Rodgers, and Ryan Bailey.
The men’s 200m will be a bun fight with Tyson Gay, Walter Dix, Wallace Spearman, Curtis Mitchell and Isiah Young all strong contenders.
The men’s shot put will be a fine competition between old timers Reese Hoffa, Christian Cantwell, and Joe Kovacs.
And the men’s 110m Hurdles likely be fought out between David Oliver and Aries Merritt.
The women’s 100m final will be a crapshoot. The medals will go to English Gardner, Carmelita Jetter, and Tori Bowie. The women’s 200m final may be between Tori Bowie, Jenna Prandini, and Kimberlyn Duncan, but we’re guessing here.
The women’s 800m final will be another close race with Ajee Wilson, Brenda Martinez, Maggie Vesey, Alysia Montano, and Chanelle Price all in contention for the medals.
All in all, these are expected to be another exciting USA Championships and keep the Eugene crowd on the edge of their seats. Remember, at RunBlogRun we only stand by our predictions that come true.
